NSW vs. QLD: State of Origin Game 1 Tips & Predictions

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We have expert betting tips for State of Origin Game 1 2023 between the New South Wales Blues and Queensland Maroons.

It’s good to see State of Origin back and it’s being held at the Adelaide Oval for the first time in history. The neutral ground makes it interesting, and it takes away home field advantage.

We look at the best bets for State of Origin Game 1, where the Blues are favoured to win at $1.65.

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State of Origin Game 1 Tips

State of Origin Game 1 Teams

Below are the confirmed teams for State of Origin Game 1 in Adelaide.

Queensland Maroons:

  1. Reece Walsh
  2. Selwyn Cobbo
  3. Valentine Holmes
  4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
  5. Murray Tulagi
  6. Cameron Munster
  7. Daly Cherry-Evans
  8. Tom Flegler
  9. Ben Hunt
  10. Lindsay Collins
  11. Tom Gilbert
  12. David Fafita
  13. Patrick Carrigan
  14. Harry Grant
  15. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
  16. Reuben Cotter
  17. Jai Arrow

New South Wales Blues:

  1. James Tedesco
  2. Brian To’o
  3. Latrell Mitchell
  4. Tom Trbojevic
  5. Josh Addo-Carr
  6. Jarome Luai
  7. Nathan Cleary
  8. Tevita Pangai Jnr
  9. Api Koroisau
  10. Payne Haas
  11. Tyson Frizell
  12. Hudson Young
  13. Isaah Yeo
  14. Junior Paulo
  15. Cameron Murray
  16. Liam Martin
  17. Nicholas Hynes

State of Origin Game 1 Betting Predictions

Queensland got back to its winning ways last year with an almighty upset, and although there have been some changes, the Maroons have a strong team.

The $2.25 underdogs have State of Origin usuals, such as Valentine Holmes, Cameron Munster, and Daly-Cherry Evans, but they also have a lot of younger talent.

There is a lack of experience with some of their players, including Reece Walsh and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, but they are two of the most exciting players in the NRL, so it’s tough to find negatives about the Maroons team.

There is a sense of freshness surrounding Queensland, especially in comparison to New South Wales, which has a lot of its usual suspects.

The Blues have the spine that they love, including Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai. We don’t rate Luai much, but when he’s outside Cleary, he’s a handy player, and his success at Penrith can’t be overlooked.

Cleary has had mixed form at Origin level and there are some out-of-form players in the mix for New South Wales. James Tedesco and Brian To’o are down on form, and that’s not to mention Josh Addo-Carr and Tom Trbojevic.

Addo-Carr has played one game since returning from injury, and up until last week, Tommy Turbo had been well below his best.

We think the Maroons should have opened at $1.65 instead of the Blues. They are the better team on paper, and they have a winning culture.

Coach Billy Slater knows what he’s doing with combinations, and there’s more to be excited about with the underdogs.

Bet: Queensland Maroons @ $2.25

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State of Origin Game 1 First Try Scorer Predictions

There is a plethora of players to choose from with try scorer markets, but our top pick is Selwyn Cobbo.

In the mould of Queensland great Greg Inglis, Cobbo is the type of player who shows up at State of Origin level, so he’s our top pick to score the opening try.

The Brisbane Bronco and Queenslander is the top pick with betting markets for Queensland, and he’s on the second line of betting behind Josh Addo-Carr in overall markets.

Cobbo will enjoy being in his position and with Munster giving him elite passes, he should be scoring at least one try.

He is a $10.50 chance to score first and $2.40 to score at any time. That’s an excellent bet as it should be a high-scoring contest.

Reece Walsh also has a knack of scoring on the big occasion, and although he’ll be nervous, he’s made for this level of competition.

Walsh injects himself into the play more than most players, which makes him a try-scoring threat. Punters get $3.40 for Walsh to score, which is good shopping.

For the Blues, we’re backing Brian To’o to score at $2.40. He’s a prolific try-scorer and punters get better odds than we expected.

Bet: Selwyn Cobbo @ $10.50

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State of Origin 1 Same Game Multi Bets

We’ve teamed up with betr to provide three GoBet Multis for every State of Origin match this year – one for NSW fans, one for QLD fans, and a four-leg try scorer special for everyone to cheer on!

NSW Same Game Multi

NSW to win 1-12
Unders in the total match points
Brian To’o anytime try scorer
Current odds: $11

View our betr NSW Origin SGM here!

QLD Same Game Multi

QLD to win 1-12
Unders in the total match points
Reece Walsh anytime try scorer
Current odds: $15

View our betr QLD Origin SGM here!

Try Scorer Same Game Multi

Reece Walsh
Selwyn Cobbo
Brian To’o
Josh Addo-Carr
Current odds: $41

View our betr Try Scorer Origin SGM here!

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About Daryl Curnow

After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA - English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism. Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 - with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports. Daryl's tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he's not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.